LOWRIE's BOARD
February 28th:
PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES — When China’s
largest offshore petroleum producer launched a $1 billion oil rig this summer from Shanghai, Lt. Gen.
Juancho Sabban, the commander of Philippine military forces 1,500 miles away in
the South China Sea, began preparing for trouble.
The drilling platform, said China, would soon
be heading in the general’s direction — southward into waters rich in oil and
natural gas, and also in volatile fuel for potential conflict.
Fueling deep unease
In some areas, China’s desire to maintain a steady supply of
energy matches the interests of the United States and other nations: All want
to ensure that sea lanes remain open and that oil tankers can pass undisturbed
through the Malacca Strait on their way to China, Japan and elsewhere.
But China’s insistence that it owns virtually the whole sea — and
the resources beneath it — has fueled deep unease, undoing much of the goodwill
China previously worked hard to develop.
Some politicians even want the United States
to reestablish military bases in the Philippines — 20 years after Manila, in a
burst of nationalist ardor at a time when few here paid much attention to
China, booted out the U.S. Navy and Air Force.
“We need the U.S. to come back. The U.S. needs
to come back, too,” said James “Bong” Gordon Jr. , the mayor of Olongapo, the town adjoining Subic
Bay, which until 2001 housed a sprawling U.S. naval base. Lt. Gen.Sabban and
Mitra, Palawan’s governor, scoff at the idea of the United States setting up
again in Subic Bay but say it should take a look at Palawan, much closer to
possible flash points in the Spratlys.
Negotiating a
settlement
CNOOC declined to comment on the whereabouts
of its drilling platform — which allows China to drill in much deeper waters
than before — and reconnaissance flights by the Philippines military have not
yet picked up any sign of it. On a recent visit to Beijing, Philippine
President Benigno Aquino and Chinese Communist Party leader Hu Jintao pledged
to settle their nations’ rival claims peacefully through negotiation, though
they remained far apart on who exactly should negotiate: Beijing wants to talk
separately with each claimant; Manila and other smaller nations favor a
regional settlement.
And nobody yet really knows the true extent of
the hydrocarbon wealth they would be negotiating over. In the absence of
detailed surveys, estimates vary widely, though even a low-ball figure by the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the South China Sea
could contain nearly twice China’s known reserves of oil and plenty of gas,
too.
China’s own estimates are many times higher.
In January, the Ministry of Land and Resources in Beijing told the People’s
Daily, the Party’s official organ, that Chinese geologists had found 38 oil and
gas fields under the South China Sea and would start exploiting them this year.
The ministry declined to elaborate or make officials available for interviews.
During the past year, China has grown increasingly assertive in its maritime claims, which collide
with those of not only the Philippines but also Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and
Brunei, and in a dispute with Japan over islands in the East China Sea, which
also lie near oil and gas deposits.
Excerpts from: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/in-south-china-sea-a-dispute-over-energy/2011/09/07/gIQA0PrQaK_story.html
OR
AP Source: Israel Won't Warn U.S. Before Iran Strike
Israeli officials say they won't warn the U.S. if they decide to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, according to one U.S. intelligence official familiar with the discussions. The pronouncement, delivered in a series of private, top-level conversations, sets a tense tone ahead of meetings in the coming days at the White House and Capitol Hill.
Israeli officials said that if they eventually decide a strike is necessary, they would keep the Americans in the dark to decrease the likelihood that the U.S. would be held responsible for failing to stop Israel's potential attack. The U.S. has been working with the Israelis for months to convince them that an attack would be only a temporary setback to Iran's nuclear program.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak delivered the message to a series of high-level U.S. visitors to the country, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the White House national security adviser, the director of national intelligence and top U.S. lawmakers, all trying to close the trust gap between Israel and the U.S. over how to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Netanyahu delivered the same message to all the Americans who have traveled to Israel for talks, the U.S. official said.
The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive strategic negotiations.
The White House did not respond to requests for comment. The Pentagon and Office of Director of National Intelligence declined to comment, as did the Israeli Embassy.
Iran claims its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but the International Atomic Energy Agency has raised alarms that its uranium enrichment program might be a precursor to building nuclear weapons. The U.S. has said it does not know whether the government has decided to weaponize its nuclear material and put it on a missile or other delivery device.
The secret warning is likely to worry U.S. officials and begin the high-level meetings with Israel and the U.S. far apart on how to handle Iran.
But the apparent decision to keep the U.S. in the dark also stems from Israel's frustration with the White House. After a visit by National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, they became convinced the Americans would neither take military action, nor go along with unilateral action by Israel against Iran. The Israelis concluded they would have to conduct a strike unilaterally — a point they are likely to hammer home in a series of meetings over the next two weeks in Washington, the official said.
Barak will meet with top administration and congressional officials during his visit. Netanyahu arrives in Washington for meetings with President Barack Obama next week.
The behind-the-scenes warning belies the publicly united front the two sides have attempted to craft with the shuttle diplomacy to each other's capitals.
"It's unprecedented outreach to Israel to make sure we are working together to develop the plan to deter Iran from developing a nuclear weapon," and to keep Iran from exporting terrorism, said Maryland Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, the top Democrat on the House intelligence committee.
He traveled there with the intelligence committee chairman, Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., to meet Israel's prime minister and defense minister, along with other officials.
"We talked about the fact that sanctions are working and they are going to get a lot more aggressive," Ruppersberger added.
They also discussed talked about presenting a unified front to Iran, to counter the media reports that the two countries are at odds over how and when to attack Iran.
"We have to learn from North Korea. All those (peace) talks and stalling and they developed a nuclear weapon," he said. "We are going to send a message, enough is enough, the stalling is over. ... All options are on the table."
Rogers told CNN on Monday: "I got the sense that Israel is incredibly serious about a strike on their nuclear weapons program. It's their calculus that the administration ... is not serious about a real military consequence to Iran moving forward.
"They believe they're going to have to make a decision on their own, given the current posture of the United States," he added.
U.S. intelligence and special operations officials have tried to keep a dialogue going with Israel despite the high-level impasse, offering options such as allowing Israel to use U.S. bases in the region to launch such a strike, as a way to make sure the Israelis give the Americans a heads-up, according to the U.S. official and a former U.S. official with knowledge of the communications.
Cooperation has improved on sharing of intelligence in the region, according to one current and one former U.S. official. Israel is providing key information on Syria, for instance, now that the U.S. has closed its embassy and pulled out its diplomats and intelligence officials stationed there, the U.S. official said.
http://www.npr.org/2012/02/28/147552939/ap-source-israel-wont-warn-u-s-before-iran-strike
